Public Debt Increase Challenge Under COVID-19 Pandemic Economic Crisis in the Caucasian Countries
Journal of Contemporary Issues in Business and Government,
2021, Volume 27, Issue 3, Pages 18-27
AbstractPaper provides an analysis of public debt problem in the Caucasusian countries of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Iran, Russia and Turkey during the economic crisis under the COVID-19 pandemic. It also discussed some closely related issues, sauch as inflation, economic growth, employment, international rankings and etc. The paper analysis the different realities and perspectives of current and future developments of COVID-19 pandemic on selected countries economy. While recognizing that public debt increase was unavoidable during the global pandemic challenge, paper concludes that its effectiveness is hugely depended on when global economy can finally overcome the fact of being a hostage of COVID-19.
- Abbas, S., Pienkowski, A., & Rogoff K. (2019) Sovereign Debt: A Guide for Economists and Practitioners: Oxfors. Oxford University Press.
- Aptsiauri, D. (2020) Current Trends in the Development of Modern International Economic Relations and Post-Virus Pandemic Crisis (Covid-19) Challenges. GFSIS Expert Opinion, No. 139. Tbilisi, Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies. Available at https://www.gfsis.org/files/library/opinion-papers/139-expert-opinion-eng.pdf.
- Baldwin, R., & di Mauro, B., eds. (2020) Mitigating the COVID Economic Crisis: Act Fast and Do Whatever It Takes: London, CEPR Press. Available at https://voxeu.org/content/mitigating-covid-economic-crisis-act-fast-and-do-whatever-it-takes.
- Barreyre, N., & Delalande, N., eds. (2020) A World of Public Debts: A Political History: ჩჰამ, Palgrave Macmillan.
- Blanchard, O. (2019) Public Debt and Low Interest Rates. NBER Working Paper 25621. Cambridge, MA, National Bureau of Economic Research. Available at https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w25621/w25621.pdf.
- Bloomberg. (2021) Exchange rates list. Available at https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDGEL:CUR.
- Charaia, V., Chochia, A. & Lashkhi, M. (2020) The impact of fdi on Economic development: The Case of Georgia. TalTech Journal of European Studies, 10(2), pp.96-116. https://content.sciendo.com/view/journals/bjes/10/2/article-p96.xml
- Charaia, V., & Lashkhi, M. (2020) Georgia and China: The Economic Ties that Could One Day Bind. A Sea Change? China’s Role in the Black Sea. Washington, DC, Middle East Institute. Available at https://mei.edu/sites/default/files/2020-11/A%20Sea%20Change%3F-China%27s%20Role%20in%20the%20Black%20Sea.pdf.
- Dalio, R. (2018) Big Debt Crises: Austin, Bridgewater.
- de Alwis, A. (2020) Coronomics – Plan Your Eggs and the Basket! Daily FT, February 25. Available at http://www.ft.lk/columns/Coronomics-%E2%80%93-Plan-your-eggs-and-thebasket-/4-695109.
- Frankel, J. (2020) The Pandemic Pain of Emerging Markets. Project Syndicate, July 31. Available at https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/covid19-will-hit-emerging-and-developing-economies-hardest-by-jeffrey-frankel-2020-07?a_la=english&a_d=5f240c4df2873622d0eb736b&a_m=&a_a=click&a_s=&a_p=%2Farchive&a_li=covid19-will-hit-emerging-and-developing-economies-hardest-by-jeffrey-frankel-2020-07&a_pa=archive-results&a_ps=&a_ms=&a_r=&barrier=accesspaylog.
- Gallagher, J. (2020a) COVID Vaccine: First ‘Milestone’ Vaccine Offers 90% Protection. BBC, November 10. Available at https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54873105?fbclid=IwAR0aCzNMjEYLeSWDl1gI-Lr4y-3KvvfdoM2Xb_UM2S4NtV46IFB-BetEXtI.
- Gallagher, J. (2020b) Moderna: Covid Vaccine Shows Nearly 95% Protection. BBC, November 16. Available at https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54902908.
- Georgieva, K. (2020) Message From the Managing Director. In: A Year Like no Other. IMF Annual Report. Washington, DC, International Monetary Fund. Available at https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/ar/2020/eng/.
- Hager S. (2016) Public Debt, Inequality, and Power: The Making of a Modern Debt State: Oakland, University of California Press.
- IMF. (2020a) Global Financial Stability Report, Bridge to Recovery. Washington, DC, International Monetary Fund, October. Available at https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/GFSR/2020/October/English/text.ashx.
- IMF. (2020b)Global Policy Agenda, Catalyzing a Resilient Recovery. Washington, DC, International Monetary Fund. Available at https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/PP/2020/English/PPEA2020047.ashx.
- IMF. (2020c) World Economic Outlook. A Long and Difficult Ascent. Washington, DC, International Monetary Fund, October. Available at https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2020/October/English/text.ashx.
- IMF. (2020d) IMF Staff Concludes Virtual Review Mission to Georgia. Washington, DC, International Monetary Fund, https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/11/10/pr20336-georgia-imf-staff-concludes-virtual-review-mission
- IMF. (2020e) IMF Executive Board Concludes Second Review Under Armenia’s Stand-By Arrangement and Augments Access to Address the Impact of COVID-19, Washington DC, International Monetary Fund, May 18. Available at https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/05/18/pr20219-armenia-imf-execboard-concludes-2ndrev-under-sba-augments-access-address-impact-covid19.
- IMF. (2020f) World Economic Outlook Database, Report for Selected Countries and Subjects: October 2020, Washington, DC, International Monetary Fund. Available at https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2020/October.
- IMF. (2021a) Fiscal Monitor Update. Washington, DC, International Monetary Fund. Available at https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/FM/Issues/2021/01/20/fiscal-monitor-update-january-2021.
- IMF. (2021b) World Economic Outlook Update, Growth Projections. Washington, DC, International Monetary Fund, January. Available athttps://www.imf.org/-/media/Images/IMF/Publications/WEO/2021/January/English/weoupdate-jan21-eng.ashx.
- IMF. (2021c) Global Financial Stability Update. Washington, DC, International Monetary Fund, January. Available at https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2021/01/27/global-financial-stability-report-january-2021-update.
- IMF. (2021d) World Economic Outlook, Policy Support and Vaccines Expected to Lift Activity, Washington, DC, International Monetary Fund, January. Available at https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2021/01/26/2021-world-economic-outlook-update.
- IMF. (2021e) Real GDP Growth Map. Washington, DC, International Monetary Fund, https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD/GEO/IRN/TUR/RUS/ARM/AZE
- IMF. (2021f) COVID-19 Financial Assistance and Debt Service Relief. Washington DC, International Monetary Funds, January. Available at https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19/COVID-Lending-Tracker#ftn.
- IMF. (2021g) Policy Responses to Covid-19, Washington, DC, International Monetary Fund. Available at https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19/Policy-Responses-to-COVID-19#G.
- WBG. (2020) Weathering the Triple-Shock, Iran Economic Monitor. Washington DC. Available at http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/287811608721990695/pdf/Iran-Economic-Monitor-Weathering-the-Triple-Shock.pdf.
- Ismailov, E., & Papava, V. (2006) The Central Caucasus: Essays on Geopolitical Economy: Stockholm, CA&CC Press.
- Ismailov, E., & Papava, V. (2008). A New Concept for the Caucasus. Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, 8(3), 283-298.
- Keaveny, P. (2020) Modern Monetary Theory: The Rise of Economists Who Say Huge Government Debt Is Not a Problem. The Conversation, July 7. Available at https://theconversation.com/modern-monetary-theory-the-rise-of-economists-who-say-huge-government-debt-is-not-a-problem-141495.
- Kramer, A. (2021) Armenia and Azerbaijan: What Sparked War and Will Peace Prevail? The New York Times, January 29. Available at https://www.nytimes.com/article/armenian-azerbaijan-conflict.html.
- Krugman, P. (2021) Pandemic Economics: Stay Weird. The New York Times, February 16. Available at https://static.nytimes.com/email-content/PK_sample.html.
- Lee, A. (2021) Global public debt to rise ‘modestly’ after US$14 trillion spent to tackle coronavirus economic damage, IMF says. China Macro Economy, Jan 28. Available at https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3119649/global-public-debt-rise-modestly-after-us14-trillion-spent.
- Lee, Y. (2020) Fitch has downgraded a record number of sovereign ratings due to the coronavirus. It’s not done yet, CNBC. Available at https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/03/fitch-downgraded-record-number-of-sovereign-ratings-due-to-coronavirus.html.
- Newman F. (2013) Freedom from National Debt: Minneapolis, Two Harbors Press.
- Papava, V. (2020a) Coronomic Crisis: When The Economy Is a Hostage to Medicine. Eurasia Review, March 29. Available at https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340264785_Coronomic_Crisis_When_The_Economy_Is_A_Hostage_To_Medicine.
- Papava, V. (2020b) Is the Vaccine a Panacea? Eurasia Review, September 30. Available at https://www.eurasiareview.com/30092020-is-the-vaccine-a-panacea-oped/?fbclid=IwAR0A1A6aQRGpC-6SfhcjjtneRU34HGm920joNgHsnZMIO4raEsLWO8l5Jrs.
- Papava, V., & Charaia, V. (2020) The Coronomic Crisis and Some Challenges for the Georgian Economy. GFSIS Expert Opinion, No. 132. Tbilisi, Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies. Available at http://papava.info/publications/Papava_Charaia_Coronomic-Crisis-and-Some-Challenges-for-the-Georgian-Economy.pdf.
- Papava, V., & Charaia, V. (2021) The Problem of the Growth of Georgia's Public Debt during the Economic Crisis under the COVID-19 Pandemic, GFSIS Expert Opinion, No. 152. Tbilisi, Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies. Available at https://www.gfsis.org/files/library/opinion-papers/152-expert-opinion-eng.pdf.
- Rajan, R. (2020) How Much Debt Is Too Much? Project Syndicate, November 30. Available at https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/borrowing-and-spending-limits-in-ultra-low-interest-rate-environment-by-raghuram-rajan-2020-11.
- Report for Selected Countries and Subjects. (2020), Washington, DC, International Monetary Fund, October. Available at https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2020/October.
- Roubini, N. (2020) The Coming Greater Depression of the 2020s. Project Syndicate, April 28. Available at https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/greater-depression-covid19-headwinds-by-nouriel-roubini-2020-04?utm_source=Project%20Syndicate%20Newsletter&utm_campaign=04e46c38d3-sunday_newsletter_12_20_2020&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_73bad5b7d8-04e46c38d3-93567601&mc_cid=04e46c38d3&mc_eid=e9fb6cbcc0&barrier=accesspaylog.
- Spence, M., & Leipziger D. (2020) The Pandemic Public-Debt Dilemma. Project Syndicate, December 8, https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/pandemic-spending-debt-dilemma-by-michael-spence-and-danny-leipziger-2020-12?utm_source=Project%20Syndicate%20Newsletter&utm_campaign=4f0dca62b8-sunday_newsletter_12_13_2020&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_73bad5b7d8-4f0dca62b8-93567601&mc_cid=4f0dca62b8&mc_eid=e9fb6cbcc0&barrier=accesspaylog
- 46. Statista. (2021) Global inflation rate from 2015 to 2025 (compared to previous year). Available at https://www.statista.com/statistics/256598/global-inflation-rate-compared-to-previous-year/.
- Sachs, J. (2021) Biden is right to spend big for Covid-19 relief. But who’s going to pay for it? CNN, February 16. Available at https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/16/opinions/biden-covid-relief-who-will-pay-sachs/index.html.
- The Economist Intelligence Union. (2021) More than 85 poor countries will not have widespread access to coronavirus vaccines before 2023. Available at https://www.eiu.com/n/85-poor-countries-will-not-have-access-to-coronavirus-vaccines/?fbclid=IwAR0E6Xa-DKrFNkWlP0h_eFgpPwi9cr4LzdFTs-wXhoS7O2UfKlhhyMOrlUc.
- Article View: 436
- PDF Download: 490